A connectivity bottleneck between the Far Northern and Northern Great Barrier Reef, with potential implications for the poleward migration of corals in response to climate change

Updated: 2026-05-20

Data from the manuscript "A connectivity bottleneck between the Far Northern and Northern Great Barrier Reef, with potential implications for the poleward migration of corals in response to climate change." The resilience of the 2300 km-long Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to climate change is often attributed to its perceived high level of connectivity. Using empirical current data and 3D hydrodynamic models, we demonstrate the existence of a hitherto under-appreciated constriction of the connectivity in the GBR, due to the geomorphology of coast and reefs, regional wind patterns, and intrusions of Coral Sea waters onto the shelf. Both data and models showed predominantly northward transport of coral larvae past the constriction during southerly winds, but a small level of southward transport during northerly winds. Our results show that this small constriction slows the southward spread of heat-adapted corals at ecologically relevant rates. As temperature zones are shifting rapidly southward due to climate change, opportunities and risks of actively assisting the poleward migration of corals in ecologically relevant numbers should be investigated in the quest to accelerate climate adaptation.