Modelled monthly migration intensity of priority shorebirds across Bass Strait (BirdFlow) (NESP MaC 4.7)

Updated: 2026-10-19

This dataset contains modelled monthly migration patterns across Bass Strait for three priority shorebird species: Curlew Sandpiper (Calidris ferruginea), Far Eastern Curlew (Numenius madagascariensis) and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). The species were selected from a suite of priority species identified by NOPSEMA and DCCEEW, building on species priorities investigated under NESP MaC Project 3.21. Modelling for Siberian Sand Plover was not progressed because insufficient records were available from Tasmania. Migration was modelled using BirdFlow, a population-level movement model that infers migration routes, timing and connectivity from weekly relative-abundance distributions. Available telemetry, banding and re-sighting data were used to evaluate and select candidate model configurations. The spatial outputs represent the rate (predicted number of crossings per 1 km grid cell) during each month of an average annual migration cycle. Separate raster products are provided for northward and southward movement, together with combined northward + southward transit surfaces. Values represent transit through a cell rather than occupancy or the number of birds present at a location. A single simulated bird may contribute to multiple cells as it moves across the landscape. The models were developed to support assessment of shorebird exposure to offshore renewable energy development in Bass Strait as part of NESP Hub Project 4.7. The products are intended for comparison of the spatial and seasonal intensity of migratory movement, including movement through and around offshore renewable energy areas. ***This data is under development. Access to the finalised spatial data will be provided once finalised, estimated early 2027.***